Using PALEOCLIMATE PROXIES TO EVALUATE THE RISK OF HUMAN Mass EXTINCTION
An Exploration Into Earths Carbon Threshold
Using PALEOCLIMATE PROXIES TO EVALUATE THE RISK OF HUMAN Mass EXTINCTION
Using PALEOCLIMATE PROXIES TO EVALUATE THE RISK OF HUMAN Mass EXTINCTION
Using PALEOCLIMATE PROXIES TO EVALUATE THE RISK OF HUMAN Mass EXTINCTION
The climate refers to the long-term patterns of temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind, and other atmospheric conditions in a particular region. It is determined by a complex interplay of factors such as solar radiation, land and ocean topography, atmospheric and oceanic circulation, greenhouse gas concentrations, and other natural and human-induced processes. Milankovitch cycles, Hadley cells, and radiative forcings are all important factors that influence the Earth's climate. Milankovitch cycles refer to variations in the Earth's orbit around the sun, which can affect the amount and distribution of solar radiation received by the planet. Earth's orbit, known as eccentricity; The angle Earth's axis is tilted, known as obliquity, and the direction Earth's axis of rotation is pointed, known as precession are the three elements which make up these cycles. They occur over long timescales, spanning tens to hundreds of thousands of years, and can contribute to changes in global climate patterns such as ice ages.Hadley cells are large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns that play a key role in determining regional climate. They occur in tropical and subtropical regions and are responsible for the trade winds, monsoons, and other weather phenomena. Hadley cells are driven by differences in solar radiation, which heats the equatorial regions more than the polar regions, leading to the formation of convection currents in the atmosphere. Radiative forcings refer to the factors that influence the balance of energy in the Earth's atmosphere, such as greenhouse gases, aerosols, and solar radiation. Greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, trap heat in the atmosphere and contribute to warming, while aerosols, such as sulfates and nitrates, reflect sunlight and have a cooling effect. Solar radiation can also vary over time due to factors such as changes in the sun's output or volcanic activity.
The climate of the Earth has undergone significant changes throughout its history. One of the most significant events was the formation of the Earth's atmosphere around 4 billion years ago. The atmosphere was initially composed of mostly carbon dioxide and water vapor, with little to no oxygen. Over time, the evolution of early life forms, such as cyanobacteria, led to the accumulation of oxygen in the atmosphere through photosynthesis. This event, known as the Great Oxygenation Event, occurred around 2.4 billion years ago and had a significant impact on the evolution of life on Earth. Another major climatic event was the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), which occurred around 56 million years ago. This event is thought to have been caused by a massive release of carbon into the atmosphere, possibly due to volcanic activity or the melting of methane hydrates. The resulting increase in greenhouse gases led to a rapid warming of the planet, with average temperatures rising by as much as 5-8°C over a period of several thousand years. The PETM had a significant impact on marine ecosystems, causing widespread extinction and changes in ocean chemistry. In more recent history, the Earth has experienced several ice ages, characterized by long periods of global cooling and the growth of large ice sheets in the polar regions. These ice ages are thought to be caused by changes in the Earth's orbit around the sun. The most recent ice age, which lasted from about 2.6 million years ago to 11,700 years ago, saw the growth and retreat of massive ice sheets, causing sea levels to rise and fall by hundreds of meters.
In the modern era, human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation have led to a significant increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, leading to a warming of the planet and changes in climate patterns. This event, known as anthropogenic climate change, is currently one of the most pressing environmental challenges facing the planet. Global Temperatures have risen by about 1.1 degrees Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) since the Industrial Revolution, which is a significant increase compared to pre-industrial times. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), if current global temperatures rise above 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) it is likely to have significant and potentially irreversible impacts on biodiversity. Specifically, it is likely to result in a significant loss of biodiversity, including the disruption and extinction of many plant and animal species. Since the mid 1800s, atmospheric CO2 concentrations were around 280 parts per million (ppm), It is now nearing 417 (ppm) while steadily increasing, based on data from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii. This represents a 50% increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations since the start of the Industrial Revolution, the majority of the warming has occurred in the last few decades, with the ten warmest years on record all since 2005. In addition to global average temperatures, surface temperatures tend to change more slowly than terrestrial surface temperatures, because the capacity of the oceans to absorb Co2 means that it takes a longer time for changes in the atmosphere to be transferred to the water in the form of heat. Terrestrial surface temperatures are influenced primarily by the exchange of heat between the land surface and the atmosphere, which means that it can respond more quickly to changes in the climate system. Therefore the temperature changes that are occurring In the ocean, although represented as a smaller scale, have a greater influence on marine ecosystems and the global climate. This increase in global temperatures has had significant impacts on the environment and human society, including rising sea levels, melting glaciers and ice sheets, more frequent and severe heatwaves and droughts, and shifts in weather patterns. These impacts are projected to become even more severe if global temperatures continue to rise, highlighting the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and transition to a more sustainable and low-carbon future. However, the scale and rate at which significant changes occur have not yet been determined by science. Meaning that there is a great deal of uncertainty.
Doug Tompkins
Capestone Website
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